By Canadian Press

modelling data released

Controls can keep Canadian COVID-19 deaths under 22,000, health agency says

Apr 9, 2020 | 7:38 AM

OTTAWA — With strong control measures, the federal public health agency projects that 11,000 to 22,000 Canadians could die of COVID-19 in the coming months.

The Public Health Agency of Canada says short-term estimates are more reliable, and it anticipates 500 to 700 deaths by the end of next week.

The agency released modelling data this morning with different possible scenarios, warning that what happens depends very much on how Canadians behave to keep the respiratory illness from spreading.

With poor containment measures, the death toll could be much, much higher, the agency says.

It says the COVID-19 battle in Canada is still in its early stages but Canada’s numbers of confirmed cases have been increasing more slowly than in other countries.

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The agency the fight against the novel coronavirus will likely take many months and require cycles of tighter and weaker controls.

“It is important to be aware of the limitations and benefits of modelling. Models are not crystal balls and we cannot predict the future with them,” noted Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief medical officer. “However, they do help us to plan and they tell us that our collective actions can have a direct and significant impact on the epidemic trajectory,”

Tam added, “While some of the numbers released today may seem stark, Canada’s modelling demonstrates that the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic and to save lives. We cannot prevent every death, but we must prevent all the deaths we can.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 9, 2020.

The Canadian Press