Syria in ruins but Assad’s hold on power looks firm
BEIRUT — His nation is a smouldering ruin, much of it held by rival armed factions, domestic or foreign. Half the population is displaced, hundreds of thousands have died and much of the West regards him as a tyrant and human rights abuser. But Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to have survived the war and is likely to hold onto power for the foreseeable future.
The sides in Syria’s civil war are preparing for the eighth round of U.N.-sponsored peace talks in Geneva intended to set a political transition to end the nearly 7-year-old conflict. Barring any surprises, no negotiated resolution is likely to lead to Assad’s ouster.
One reason is military. Assad’s forces have had the momentum on the ground the past year, backed by an overwhelming Russian air campaign and fighters from Iran and Hezbollah. Assad’s government now controls more than 50 per cent of Syria.
Holding half the country normally wouldn’t be an optimistic sign, but that’s up from 19 per cent earlier this year. His troops control Syria’s four largest cities, 10 of its 14 provincial capitals and its Mediterranean coast. No force on the ground is capable of driving Assad out at this stage.