Carney expected to announce Germany’s TKMS as winner of sub contract: reports

The Prime Minister’s Office did not confirm details about the nature of Monday’s announcement, but did not deny reports that he will name the government’s preferred bidder for the lucrative sub contract.

The Globe and Mail was first to report TKMS as the successful bidder.

Stephen Fuhr, the secretary of state for defence procurement, is set to make an announcement in Esquimalt, the West Coast home of the Navy, at around the same time.

Canada is under pressure to replace the four Victoria-class submarines, which are nearing the end of their lifespans.

Ottawa narrowed the competition last August to two qualified bidders.

Hanwha and TKMS have both promised partnerships with Canadian companies in the race for the multi-billion dollar contract, which will deliver up to 12 submarines.

Hanwha ran an advertising campaign featuring broadcast icon Peter Mansbridge to promote its subs, while TKMS quietly pressed its case to Canadian officials.

Hanwha had argued it could provide the strongest economic benefits and promised the fastest delivery schedule, thanks to its massive shipyard south of Busan, South Korea.

Paul T. Mitchell, a professor of defence studies at Canadian Forces College in Toronto, said he was a little surprised to hear TKMS was chosen, because the Korean subs have more to offer in terms of endurance, range and attack capabilities.

He also believed the South Korean firm would be able to produce more subs more quickly. Hanwha had promised to deliver four subs by 2035 and one per year after that.

TKMS has said it can provide four subs between 2032 and 2036, after the company negotiated with the governments of Germany and Norway to move Canada ahead in the lineup.

Mitchell said the German company likely had an edge because it has built fleets for more than 20 navies around the world — and it could offer NATO interoperability.

TKMS heavily promoted the fact that fellow NATO allies Norway and Germany would be using the same 212CD submarines.

“The fact that Canada has worked with Germany and Norway at sea for many decades now means that the institutional relationships between the Royal Canadian Navy and those two navies are much deeper than they are with the Korean navy,” Mitchell said.

Mitchell said Carney’s government has made a point of “leaning strongly into” reinforcing the importance of stable institutions, including NATO, at a time of global uncertainty.

The Canadian government made it clear throughout the process that it wanted to see economic and industrial benefits for Canada in the winning bid, beyond the submarines themselves.

Both firms had promised tens of thousands of jobs and economic benefits worth tens of billions of dollars over the lifespan of the project.

Rumours ran wild in Ottawa not long ago over the prospect of the federal government splitting the contract between the two suppliers, but Carney poured cold water on that idea last fall.

“You just get too many efficiencies in economies of having one fleet,” he said at a news conference last September.

The former Liberal government of prime minister Justin Trudeau announced plans to acquire a new fleet of Arctic-capable submarines in 2024 at the NATO summit in Washington.

At the time, Canada was under heavy pressure from the United States and other NATO allies over its persistent failure to meet its alliance spending commitments — and its apparent lack of interest in ever meeting them.

Experts had urged Ottawa for years to start the process to replace the navy’s four Victoria-class submarines, warning Canada risked losing submarine capability entirely.

Built in the 1980s and 1990s and bought second-hand from the United Kingdom, those vessels are set to be decommissioned by 2035. By that time, the oldest submarine in the fleet, HMCS Chicoutimi, will be 52 years old.

Carney has repeatedly pointed out that only one of the Victoria boats is currently functional. The navy will likely find itself forced to cannibalize some of the remaining subs for spare parts to keep one in service.

Fuhr has said Ottawa shaved years off the procurement process by streamlining steps. Industry insiders have described the speed at which the project is moving as unprecedented.

The Canadian military will gain a new, rare naval capability through the purchase of a modern submarine fleet: the ability to strike land targets with long-range precision missiles.

The new fleet also will be able to remain submerged for weeks rather than days thanks to modern submarine technology.

With the longest coastline of any country in the world, Canada needs long-range submarines to patrol the coasts in three oceans and to keep tabs on who is travelling in and out of Arctic waters.

Naval submarines are staggered through deployment, training and maintenance cycles — meaning for every three or four subs a country operates, only one is kept available for deployment on active operations.

Mitchell said the navy will have to work to build up its own capacity in the coming years, both in terms of the number of trained submariners available and its ability to operate and maintain the boats.

“You just don’t turn on the tap and produce submarine engineers and naval architects,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 6, 2026.

Kyle Duggan and Sarah Ritchie, The Canadian Press

by The Canadian Press

Carney expected to announce Germany’s TKMS as winner of sub contract: reports

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