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By David Opinko

Population Forecasts

Medicine Hat area population could go either way by 2050 according to StatCan forecasts

Feb 18, 2026 | 12:54 PM

Statistics Canada is forecasting that the Medicine Hat area could potentially see a dip in population, but growth is also possible.

The Lethbridge area is expected to see growth over that time.

StatCan has released its population projections for census divisions and subdivisions by 2050.

The southernmost part of Alberta is divided into three regions:

• Division 1
  • Includes Medicine Hat, Redcliff, Bow Island, Foremost
  • Population was 89,281 in 2025
  • Projected 83,117 to 103,123 by 2050

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• Division 2
  • Includes Lethbridge, Coaldale, Taber, Warner, Milk River, Raymond, Picture Butte, Nobleford, Brooks, Bassano
  • Population was 202,809 in 2025
  • Projected 240,877 to 307,768 by 2050

• Division 3
  • Includes Fort Macleod, Magrath, Cardston, Pincher Creek, Blood Tribe, Claresholm, Nanton
  • Population was 42,734 in 2025
  • Projected 37,266 to 47,205 by 2050

Division 1

The farthest southeast section of the province could grow or shrink in the coming years.

Stats Canada forecasts a population contraction of 6.9 per cent by 2050 under its low-growth scenario, falling to 83,117.

The population could see slight gains under the medium-growth scenario, increasing by 4.5 per cent to 93,332.

It is only under the high-growth scenario that this region hits six-figures over the next 25 years, growing by 15.5 per cent to 103,123.

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2050 population projections for Alberta’s Division 1. (Image Credit: Statistics Canada / Pattison Media)

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Division 2

Among those three areas, Division 2 is expected to have by far the biggest and fastest population growth over the next 25 years.

Under its lowest-growth scenario, the number of people living in Division 2 would increase by 18.7 per cent to 240,877.

The population could grow by 35.9 per cent under the medium-growth scenario to 275,668

However, Division 2 could reach 307,768 residents by 2050 under the high-growth scenario, adding more than 100,000 people and rising by 51.7 per cent.

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2050 population projections for Alberta’s Division 2. (Image Credit: Statistics Canada / Pattison Media)

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Division 3

This region is expected to have the slowest population change among the three southern areas, increasing only under the high-growth scenario.

The population is forecast to contract by 12.8 per cent to just 37,266 under the low-growth scenario.

Medium growth would still result in a 1.1 per cent decline in population to 42,244.

With high growth, the southwestern region would grow by 10.5 per cent by 2050 to 47,205.

You can see all of the population projections by census division here.

2050 population projections for Alberta’s Division 3. (Image Credit: Statistics Canada / Pattison Media)

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Provincial

Statistics Canada released its provincial population projections in late January.

It forecasts that Alberta will surpass B.C. to become the third-most-populated province in Canada under all three growth scenarios.

Alberta could be home to anywhere between 6.45 million and 8.13 million people by 2050.

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READ: Alberta population projected to surpass B.C. by 2050: Stats Canada (Jan. 27, 2026)

— With files from Jesse Gill