By Chris Brown

More modelling details from the premier

Kenney: Alberta is doing well compared to other jurisdictions, but cautions it’s early

Apr 8, 2020 | 4:07 PM

Premier Jason Kenney announced another 50 cases of COVID-19 in Alberta on Wednesday, putting the provincial total at 1,423. There have also been three new deaths in the province for a total of 29, and 519 of the total cases are considered to be recovered.

There are four new cases in the South Zone, one of which is in Cypress County. Brooks also recorded it’s first case of the virus. There are no other changes to the already known cases in Medicine Hat or the surrounding counties or municipal districts.

“Last night I spoke to Albertans about probable and elevated scenarios. These scenarios help to inform decision making and preparation activities, especially regarding health system needs,” Kenney said. “Modelling is intended to show expected trends. It is not a day-to-day forecast of case increases, and the scenarios should not be considered concrete predictions. As the situation evolves and new data becomes available the modelling will change. We will continue to refine the data and provide Albertans with updated information.”

Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, echoed that, saying the model will evolve over time.

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She also stressed that Albertans themselves will determine how the model changes.

“If Albertans stop following public health restrictions and guidelines, we can expect to experience a higher impact than the data currently suggests. If Albertans strictly follow all public health guidance, we collectively can further reduce the impact from what the modelling is currently predicting,” Hinshaw said.

The modelling is based on the assumption that every COVID case spreads the infection to one or two other people, Hinshaw explained.

“Changing our total infections in the province is in our hands. Every action makes a difference,” she said.

Changes are being made to testing so it is used strategically. Testing is expanding to essential workers across the province who have a cough, fever, runny nose, sore throat or shortness of breath. That is being defined as anyone whose worksite has not been closed to public access by public health orders and who, if they were well, would currently be working outside the home.

The expansion also extends to all residents of the Calgary Zone who have any of the same symptoms listed above. Anyone who lives with a person 65 years or older and has any of the symptoms is eligible for testing.

Hinshaw said anyone in the above categories should first use online self-assessment tool, calling it the pathway to booking a test.

Speaking in front of a chart showing confirmed cases per 100,000, Kenney said it shows Alberta is doing “very well” in terms of the slope compared to other jurisdictions.

“Fortunately, we’re much closer to South Korea, Japan and Taiwan than we are for example to the European countries – Spain, Italy, France – or for that matter the United States,” said Kenney, adding the very low slope is what Albertans want to see.

He had a word of caution though.

“We’re still fairly early into this, and that’s why continued vigilance is necessary,” Kenney said. “Japan has had a low slope but they continue to go up in terms of cases on a per capita basis. So this is encouraging data that we’re doing better than most countries, but it’s nothing that we can take for granted.”

The full modelling projection can be read here

Kenney also showed a variety of charts showing Alberta’s relative success compared to other provinces.

He added hospitalizations and subsequent ICU admissions is the best way to measure the impact of the virus. According a chart Alberta’s hospitalizations is 0.2 per 10,000 cases.

‘We are one-fifth of where Quebec is at, one-half of where Ontario is at and about one-third of where British Columbia is at,” the premier noted.

As the number of cases continues to rise, so will the strain on the health system and the province has been scaling up capacity at facilities to ensure the province is ready at the peak of the pandemic.

“With these measures, and because of the hard work of our front-line health-care workers – our nurses, doctors and those who support them – we are well-positioned to manage the probable impacts of COVID-19 in the coming months,” Dr. Verna Yiu, president and CEO, Alberta Health Services, said in a release.

Kenney presented the basics of the modelling data on Tuesday evening in an address to the province.

The probable scenario shows Alberta will hit the peak of infections in mid-May and that by the end of the summer there could be as many as 800,000 infections and between 400 and 3,100 deaths in the province.

The elevated, but less likely, scenario shows the peak in early May, with as many as one million infections and between 500 and 6,600 deaths.

“I know that these numbers can be overwhelming. But these models are not a done deal,” said Kenney on Tuesday. “I want Albertans to see them as a challenge. Perhaps the greatest challenge of our generation.”

Kenney said the modelling scenarios are not inevitable and that how the COVID-19 pandemic plays out in Alberta is up to Albertans and the choices they make when it comes to following the countermeasures recommended by public health officials.

Those countermeasures – proper hand hygiene, physical distancing, staying home when you can and more – work, said Kenney.

“Our experts project that if we had no social distancing and public health orders in place, we could experience as many as 1.6 million infections, and 32,000 deaths in Alberta – as many as 640 deaths per day. Our health system would collapse under the chaos of that scenario,” he said.

Read the full April 8 update from the province here.