City monitoring the rain and river conditions ‘very, very closely’

For comparison, the local river flow rate was more than 5,000 cubic metres per second during Medicine Hat’s last significant flood event in 2013.

Still, the city’s head of emergency preparedness says the risk in Medicine Hat is relatively low at this point.

“We have yet to be issued a high streamflow advisory and so based on the information, we’re in a good situation however we are very, very closely monitoring the situation should it change,” says Merrick Brown, manager of support services with fire and emergency services.

Out of caution, the city has moved to level two of its four-level emergency activation plan and is now doing enhanced monitoring of the local river and conditions in the Oldman and Bow River basins. The River Forecasting Centre, staffed by Alberta Environment and Environment Canada, is calling for somewhere around 100 millimetres of rain to fall in the areas upstream in the next couple of days.

“In 2013 there was roughly about anywhere between 200 and 250 millimetres of rain that fell in that short period of time and there was quite a significantly wet year and so a bit different from this year in the fact that reservoirs are quite low and have that capacity to be able to take in that extra water,” he says.

“And also the soil moisture levels are significantly lower than what they were in 2013. In fact, 2013 was quite a wet year so it was quite waterlogged where really the water didn’t have anywhere to go. So based on the information that we’ve received from the river forecasting centre and the modelling that they do is currently based on, the situation right now, we’re still in a good situation.”

Calgary declared a state of local emergency in response to the expected rainfall. Mayor Jyoti Gondek says it allows police and fire personnel to go door-to-door to notify residents about possible evacuation notices and allows access to properties to protect critical infrastructure.

At a separate update on Monday afternoon, the Environment and Parks Minister Jason Nixon said the province has been in contact with the City of Calgary and other municipal governments. He said the province is ready to help Albertans in cases of emergency.

According to Lisa Jackson of Alberta Environment significant rain has already hit the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains and up to 150mm of rain is expected there over the next three days.

A University of Saskatchewan water expert says he doesn’t expect heavy rain that’s in the forecast for southern Alberta will cause the same kind of deadly flooding seen nine years ago.

Hydrologist John Pomeroy says precipitation in the high mountains is expected to fall as snow rather than rain. That means it would build up one of the highest snowpacks in decades instead of forming rapid runoff down to the creeks.

Pomeroy says there’s still a possibility of damaging floods in localized areas but much will depend on what happens tonight and tomorrow morning.

Given the fluctuating flow rates that will be seen in Medicine Hat in the next few days, Brown says the South Saskatchewan River should be avoided.

“Just be cognizant of that and the fact that those flow rates can be quite drastic as we’ll see here over the next week and so being on the river is not the greatest idea right now.”

Brown says to follow the city’s guidance on what to do and what not to do and says having a 72-hour emergency kit and evacuation kit is a good idea for any potential emergency.

The third level of the city’s emergency activation plan would take some staff away from regular duties and put them toward the emergency. Brown says the fourth changes the priority of the city as a whole to respond fully as an organization to a major, complex incident.

— with files from The Canadian Press

by Chris Brown

City monitoring the rain and river conditions ‘very, very closely’

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