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Data and modelling refined

Two more COVID-19 deaths in the South Zone, another 42 cases

Apr 28, 2020 | 3:47 PM

The number of COVID-19 cases in Alberta is approaching 5,000 after another 154 cases were confirmed in the past 24 hours. That brings the total to 4,850.

The South Zone has 682 cases, an increase of 42 since Monday.

There are also two additional deaths in the South Zone, bringing the total to four. One of the new deaths was in a continuing care facility. All four deaths in the South Zone are in Brooks.

That city now has 623 cases, 603 of which are active and 16 of which are recovered. Of those cases, 249 are confirmed among employees and contractors at the JBS meatpacking facility.

A drive-thru COVID-19 testing facility opened in Brooks on Monday.

Medicine Hat’s case numbers remain unchanged at 27 cases, 16 of which are active and 11 recovered.

The total number of deaths in the province is now 80 and the number of recovered cases is now at 1,800.

There are 82 Albertans currently in hospital, 21 of which are in the ICU.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney shared that the updated data and modelling shows that “our efforts to reduce the peak of the virus are working.”

He added the number of Albertans hospitalized and in intensive care is well below what was originally projected.

“While this is good news, we must remain vigilant. While we are a ways off of returning to our normal way of life, we are working as a government around the clock on our phased approach to relaunch.”

The health measures Kenney said they will keep an eye include hospitalization and ICU admissions, the rate of growth of cases as a percentage of testing.

The updated probable scenario has 596 people requiring in hospital at the peak of the virus. That’s down from 818 in the original modelling. The updated elevated scenario sees a drop to 745, compared to 1,570 in the original modelling.

A new low scenario suggests nearly 300 people will require hospitalization at the peak. Kenney said it’s possible that could eventually become the probable scenario.

Kenney said the province’s relaunch strategy will be outlined later this week and that it will be similar to that of Saskatchewan.

“For a relaunch to be successful it’s essential that Albertans stay vigilant, keep each other safe and continue to listen to the advice of relaunch officials,” he said, adding the new data and modelling has lowered what had been the worst-case scenario of economic impact.

There is concern about recent outbreaks but overall the trends continue to be encouraging, said Kenney.

For those who will take today’s updated data as a sign the relaunch of the economy should be stepped up, Kenney said he understands that but that the need for vigilance will remain.

He’s hopeful people will “exercise more common sense” and we can “avoid outbreaks and continue to move back towards, eventually, something like normal.”

Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief officer of health, said the outbreaks in Brooks and High River are concerning and that a rapid response teams working to make sure operators implement outbreak protocols and that cases are identified and supported so they can be isolated and health-care can be provided.

Widespread testing and temporary housing is available for those in outbreak settings and other supports for those at risk.

She was unable to pinpoint the date she became aware of a positive case at the JBS plant but said it “would have been relatively soon after the local medical officers of health identified a concern.”

She said what she’s heard from the local health teams is that there are complex factors and the outbreaks involve not just a single site but involve the people they share housing with, share carpooling.

Hinshaw was asked about requesting a closure of the worksite.

“When I’ve been speaking with those local medical officers of health, the recommendation I’ve received is that we see these outbreaks as a whole community issue that’s not linked to one particular worksite.”

Hinshaw stressed that the updated modelling is good news.

“Alberta is starting to see the results of the collective sacrifices we have made, but I want to stress that this fight is far from over.

Modelling is just a projection of a potential future. It is not a guarantee and cases could easily spike in Alberta if we are not careful.”

The County of Newell has five active cases.

In Cypress County, they are reporting eight cases of COVID-19, three active and five recovered.

The County of Forty Mile and Municipal District of Taber each have two confirmed cases both listed as recovered.

The City of Lethbridge has 13 active cases, five listed as active and eight recovered. Lethbridge County has one recorded recovered case.

Read the full April 28 update from the province here.